HOW TO FOLLOW THESE PICKS
New here? Skim this once. Every morning we publish 1-3 MLB picks (and WNBA when in season) — here's exactly how to use them, how the math works, and what to do if you're not ready to bet at full size.
Check the morning pick(s)
Each day before first pitch we lock 1-3 picks into a tamper-evident ledger (you can audit it at /receipts). Picks come from two analysts — Charlie hunts bounce-backs, Dakota rides momentum. We attribute each pick to one of them.
Size your bet on Optimizer
Don't bet our default $250 unit — that's our internal benchmark. Tell the Optimizer your target weekly winnings + bankroll and it builds your personalized 3-tier ladder. The number you see on each pick card auto-scales to YOUR size.
Place the bet at the moneyline shown
We publish the live DraftKings moneyline on every pick. Use that line or any line within a couple of points — wide swings change the math. The recommendation is to back the team on their next scheduled game.
Track your real P&L on /account
Once you've placed picks, see your personalized win-rate + dollar P&L on the Account page. Numbers update automatically as games settle. No spreadsheet needed.
Two analysts — what they do
Hunts teams stuck in a chop pattern — losses sandwiched between wins. When a team posts an isolated single-game loss (W → L → W setup), Charlie watches for the next time that pattern repeats inside the team's loss-cycle. The 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 8th isolated losses in a cycle are the highest-conviction triggers.
Catches the rebound. When a tracked team posts a W1 right after a loss streak, Dakota bets the next game — riding the momentum back the other way. Simple, fast, no record-gating. Each W1-after-L inside the current cycle is a new trigger; the cycle resets when the team strings two-or-more wins together.
Pick confidence — what the badges mean
- Strong — deep in cycle, pattern firmly established. Highest expected hit-rate.
- Standard — within the normal trigger range. Bet at your normal size.
- Watch — outside the historically best triggers. Tag-along only if you're already up for the week.
FAQ
Do I have to bet on every pick?
No. Many subscribers cherry-pick by analyst or by 'Strong' confidence only. You'll lose less to variance if you tail every pick, but the long-run edge is built into both analysts independently — so picking one is fine too.
What's the recommended bankroll?
20× your base unit is the floor. If your base unit is $50, that's a $1,000 bankroll. The Optimizer flags you if your base unit creeps above 5% of bankroll — that's the warn-line; anything above 10% is high-risk and we'll surface a louder warning.
When are picks published?
MLB picks lock at ~1 AM ET (after the previous day's games settle). WNBA picks lock at ~9 AM PT. Both go out as a single morning email blast around 9 AM ET if you've opted in.
What happens if both teams in the same game qualify?
We skip both. We never bet against ourselves. You'll see a SKIP-BOTH note in the trigger map on those days — historically rare but it does happen.
Can I see every prior pick?
Yes — /history shows all settled picks, /receipts shows the tamper-evident ledger with lock timestamps. Every result is permanent. We don't re-grade or delete.
Ready?
Start with the Stake Optimizer — it takes 60 seconds to build your personalized ladder.